What Happened Last Week?
AM Gains Mostly Stick Around
Everything interesting about Friday occurred before 9am ET (several war-related headlines that prompted a sharp rally in bonds). The rest of the day was spent drifting mostly sideways. Stocks continued their surge to new all-time highs. Oil prices fell in concert with the bond rally, briefly dipping below $80/bbl.
Source: Matthew Graham, Mortgage News Daily 4/17/26)
What‘s on the Agenda for This Week?
Three Things
The three areas that have the greatest ability to impact MBS backend pricing are: (1) Geopolitical, (2) Retail Sales and (3) Jobs.
(1) Geopolitical: This category will continue to dominate all financial markets this week, particularly the bond market, as the ever-changing Iran story vs. oil prices has been the main driver of long bond yields for over a month.
(2) Retail Sales: The headline number is expected to jump simply due to higher prices. The bond market will focus on the details.
(3) Jobs: This is a very light week for economic data (other than Retail Sales). The high-frequency ADP and Initial Weekly data points will get plenty of attention.
Treasury Dump
There is an important 20-year bond auction on Wednesday.
Market Wrap-up
There were no domestic releases today.
Central Bank Palooza: The People’s Bank of China kept their key interest rate at 3.00%.
On Deck for Tomorrow: Retail Sales, ADP Employment, Pending Home Sales