What Happened Last Week?
Bonds Drifted Weaker Despite Lower Oil Prices
Although they still technically made positive progress versus the end of the previous week, bonds ended Friday moderately weaker. Lower oil prices offered no support, but that’s a tricky correlation these days. Longer-term oil contracts continue lining up with bond yield movement more reliably. To be sure, one can at least consider the impact of Friday morning’s CPI data based on decent trading volume at the time and a reversal of the sideways to slightly stronger momentum in the preceding few hours, but it’s impossible to say that it continued weighing on bonds for the rest of the session.
Source: Matthew Graham, Mortgage News Daily 4/10/26)
What‘s on the Agenda for This Week?
Three Things
The three areas that have the greatest ability to impact MBS backend pricing this week are: (1) Geopolitical (really that’s most of it), (2) Inflation Nation and (3) The Talking Fed.
(1) Geopolitical: Iran et al, will continue to dominate the long bond market this week. The week started off with a blockade effective at 10 ET am…For how long? What happens next?
(2) Inflation Nation: Both PCE and CPI were last week, both starting to show the impact of higher energy costs. This week will be PPI.
(3) The Talking Fed: The bond market has largely priced out any cuts for 2026 with small rumblings of hikes now. Here is this week’s schedule:
- 04/13: Miran
- 04/14: Goolsbee, Barr
- 04/15: Barr, Bowman, Fed’s Beige Book
- 04/16: Williams, Miran
- 04/17: Waller, Barkin
Market Wrap-up
Domestic Flavor
Taking it to the House: March Existing Homes Sales were 3.98M units on an annualized basis versus market expectations of 4.06M. April was revised up from 4.09M to 4.13M.
On Deck for Tomorrow: ADP Weekly, PPI, Core PPI.