What Happened Last Week?
Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to End the Week
First, the bad news: mortgage rates ended the day just a hair higher compared to Thursday, but the change was so small that many borrowers will see little–if any–difference in pricing. Now the good news: apart from Thursday afternoon, Friday’s rates would still be the lowest in 4 weeks (i.e., you’d have to go back to July 17th to see anything lower). Lastly, some news that’s neither good nor bad, but simply a bit confusing. Friday’s higher rates followed the morning’s Retail Sales report which came in much weaker than expected. Conventional wisdom would have suggested that weaker data coincides with lower rates.
Source: Matthew Graham, Mortgage News Daily 8/14/26)
What’s on the Agenda for This Week?
Three Things
The three areas that have the greatest ability to impact MBS backend pricing this week are: (1) Texas Tea, Black Gold, (2) The Talking Fed and (3) Rosie the Riveter.
(1) Texas Tea, Black Gold: Oil prices will continue to dominate the pathway of long bond yields and therefore MBS pricing.
(2) The Talking Fed: There will be several speakers this week but the markets will focus on Wednesday’s release of the Minutes from the last FOMC meeting. Experts will be looking for more color on the momentum to raise rates as a mechanism to fight inflation.
(3) Rosie the Riveter: There will be several regional manufacturing reports this week along with Industrial Production and the Flash PMIs.
Treasury Dump
There is an important 20-year Treasury Bond auction on Wednesday.
Market Wrap-up
Domestic Flavor
Rosie the Riveter: A busy week of manufacturing news kicks off with a big beat with the NY Empire Manufacturing Index, rising to 20.6 versus estimates of 11.
Taking it to the House: The August NAHB Sentiment was better than expected but remained in the basement (pun intended) with a reading of only 35.
On Deck for Tomorrow: ADP Employment, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, Pending Home Sales, Housing Starts and Building Permits, Import and Export Prices.