What Happened Last Week?
Not Reading Too Much into Late Day Reversal
Bonds rallied quickly in response to Thursday (Friday was a holiday) morning’s jobs report and pressed to even stronger levels by mid-day. That’s the point in the day that most traders (the ones actually working) consider bonds to be “closed.” But in the noon-2pm hour, a decent chunk of the AM gains was erased. Experts wouldn’t read too much into those and instead view them as a facet of pre-holiday-weekend illiquidity and/or position squaring. This doesn’t imply directionality in the future. It just means wait for this week to get a clean read on market sentiment.
Source: Matthew Graham, Mortgage News Daily 7/2/26)
What’s on the Agenda for This Week?
Three Things
The three areas that have the greatest ability to impact MBS backend pricing this week are: (1) Geopolitical, (2) The Talking Fed and (3) ISM.
(1) Geopolitical: US/Iran and Israel/Lebanon are still big factors in risk, flight to quality and oil prices. Oil prices will continue to be a big factor in pricing.
(2) The Talking Fed: The Minutes from Fed Chair Warsh’s first FOMC meeting as chair will be released on Wednesday.
(3) ISM Services: This will hit Monday at 10 am and is the biggest economic release of the week.
Treasury Dump
This is a big week for auctions, with all eyes on Thursday’s 30-year bond auction.
- 07/07: 3-year note
- 07/08: 10-year note
- 07/09: 30-year bond