After two straight holiday-shortened weeks with lower than normal trading volumes, we finally have a full work week with all the bond traders back and ready to go.
This is a huge week of big-hitting economic releases, a large supply of Treasuries being auctioned off, and the confirmation of Janet Yellen this week.
Will the FOMC elect to drop another $10 billion (from $75B to $65B) at their meeting this month? That’s what traders will be focusing on with this week’s release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting and the very closely watched ADP Private Payroll and Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll data.
Treasury auctions this week:
01/07 3-year Treasury Note
01/08 10-year Treasury Note
01/09 30-year Treasury Bond
Look for mortgage backed securities to trade in a fairly tight range until that ADP report and the FOMC minutes that same day. Friday will be the biggest day of the week. If Non-Farm Payroll goes above 200K, the market will assume that there will be another drop of at least $10B in asset purchases by the FOMC for February.
What is on the agenda for this week?
|
Date |
Time (ET) |
Economic Release |
Market Expects |
Prior |
|
6-Jan |
10:00 AM |
Factory Orders |
1.70% |
-0.90% |
|
6-Jan |
10:00 AM |
ISM Services |
54.6 |
53.9 |
|
7-Jan |
8:30 AM |
Trade Balance |
-$40.4B |
-$40.6B |
|
8-Jan |
7:00 AM |
MBA Mortgage Index |
NA |
NA |
|
8-Jan |
8:15 AM |
ADP Employment Change |
203K |
215K |
|
8-Jan |
10:30 AM |
Crude Inventories |
NA |
-7.007M |
|
8-Jan |
2:00 PM |
FOMC Minutes |
– |
– |
|
8-Jan |
3:00 PM |
Consumer Credit |
$15.2B |
$18.2B |
|
9-Jan |
7:30 AM |
Challenger Job Cuts |
NA |
-20.60% |
|
9-Jan |
8:30 AM |
Initial Claims |
338K< /span> |
NA |
|
9-Jan |
8:30 AM |
Continuing Claims |
2875K |
NA |
|
9-Jan |
10:30 AM |
Natural Gas Inventories |
NA |
-97 bcf |
|
10-Jan |
8:30 AM |
Nonfarm Payrolls |
197K |
203K |
|
10-Jan |
8:30 AM |
Nonfarm Private Payrolls |
198K |
196K |
|
10-Jan |
8:30 AM |
Unemployment Rate |
7.00% |
7.00% |
|
10-Jan |
8:30 AM |
Hourly Earnings |
0.20% |
0.20% |
|
10-Jan |
8:30 AM |
Average Workweek |
34.5 |
34.5 |
|
10-Jan |
10:00 AM |
Wholesale Inventories |
0.20% |
1.40% |