This Week
We have a big week for economic data..but it won’t start until tomorrow.
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) are moving upward this morning on speculation over the German GDP data due out this week. The only economic report this afternoon is the U.S. Treasury budget. There are no major U.S. Treasury auctions this week.
The rest of the week is packed with data about inflation levels (PPI and CPI). These are most likely going to continue to show very tame inflation levels on a month-over-month basis.
Tuesday’s Retail Sales report and Friday’s Consumer Sentiment Index will be the biggest reports of the week.
Pre-Market Status: Neutral/Floating for Monday on an intra-day basis but Neutral/Locking for the week. MBS will trend upward today (better pricing for you). But keep an eye on that 50 day moving average as our new resistance level. If we get a strong Retail Sales report on Tuesday, MBS will reverse course towards worse pricing so be prepared.
What is on the agenda for this week?
|
Date |
Time (ET) |
Economic Release |
Market Expects |
Prior |
|
12-Aug |
2:00 PM |
Treasury Budget |
-$96.0B |
-$69.6B |
|
13-Aug |
8:30 AM |
Retail Sales |
0.20% |
0.40% |
|
13-Aug |
8:30 AM |
Retail Sales ex-auto |
0.30% |
0.00% |
|
13-Aug |
8:30 AM |
Export Prices ex-ag. |
NA |
-0.20% |
|
13-Aug |
8:30 AM |
Import Prices ex-oil |
NA |
-0.30% |
|
13-Aug |
10:00 AM |
Business Inventories |
0.10% |
0.10% |
|
14-Aug |
7:00 AM |
MBA Mortgage Index |
NA |
0.20% |
|
14-Aug |
8:30 AM |
PPI |
0.30% |
0.80% |
|
14-Aug |
8:30 AM |
Core PPI |
0.20% |
0.20% |
|
14-Aug |
10:30 AM |
Crude Inventories |
NA |
-1.320M |
|
15-Aug |
8:30 AM |
Initial Claims |
339K |
333K |
|
15-Aug |
8:30 AM |
Continuing Claims |
3000K |
3018K |
|
15-Aug |
8:30 AM |
CPI |
0.20% |
0.50% |
|
15-Aug |
8:30 AM |
Core CPI |
0.20% |
0.20% |
|
15-Aug |
8:30 AM |
Empire Manufacturing |
6 |
9.46 |
|
15-Aug |
9:00 AM |
Net Long-Term TIC Flows |
NA |
-$27.2B |
|
15-Aug |
9:15 AM |
Industrial Production |
0.40% |
0.30% |
|
15-Aug |
9:15 AM |
Capacity Utilization |
78.00% |
77.80% |
|
15-Aug |
10:00 AM |
Philadelphia Fed |
10 |
19.8 |
|
15-Aug |
10:00 AM |
NAHB Housing Market Index |
57 |
57 |
|
15-Aug |
10:30 AM |
Natural Gas Inventories |
NA |
96 bcf |
|
16-Aug |
8:30 AM |
Housing Starts |
895K |
836K |
|
16-Aug |
8:30 AM |
Building Permits |
934K |
911K |
|
16-Aug |
8:30 AM |
Productivity-Prel |
0.00% |
0.50% |
|
16-Aug |
8:30 AM |
Unit Labor Costs |
-0.30% |
-4.30% |
|
16-Aug |
9:55 AM |
Mich Sentiment |
85.1 |
85.1 |