This week the FOMC meting is the report to watch. The policy statement Wednesday afternoon has many thinking the Fed will announce another QE move to keep rates from increasing. We are not sure, more likely the statement will reflect increasing concerns that the economy is slowing and the Fed is alert to it. While not an easing announcement it will keep interest rates low and to some extent hold the stock market from falling off a cliff. After the policy statement Bernanke will hold a press conference where we can get more detail on what he is thinking about the soft economy and no real job growth. Earnings reports for Q1 have not been as soft as was generally thought.
Data this week includes March new home sales, consumer confidence and durable goods orders; all key data points. Also this week treasury will auction 2 yr, 5 yr and 7 yr notes for a total of $99B beginning Tuesday through Thursday. Concern that the euro-area debt crisis is deepening after a first round of French elections ended with President Nicolas Sarkozy trailing his Socialist rival and the Dutch government split over austerity plans. Spain and Italy’s debts and their economies are also adding safety moves by investors to US treasuries.
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