What Happened Last Week?
Lots at Stake for Rates
Mortgage rates managed to have a nice, boring Friday with minimal movement. That’s a victory considering Thursday saw a decent move lower, but victories are eternally tempered by the long-term chart as long as the long-term chart shows an upward trend.
Source: Matthew Graham, Mortgage News Daily 10/27/2023)
What’s on the Agenda for this Week?
Overview
This is a MONSTER week which will be very pivotal for MBS pricing in the near term.
Three Things
The three things that have the greatest ability to impact MBS backend pricing this week are: (1) The Talking Fed, (2) Jobs, Jobs, Jobs and (3) Central Bank Palooza.
(1) The Talking Fed: On Wednesday will be the latest Interest Rate Decision and Policy Statement out of the FOMC. This is not a meeting where they release their Economic Projections. There will be a live presser with Chair Powell at 2:30 pm ET after their policy is released. Currently the bond market is heavily hedged toward no rate change at this meeting.
(2) Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: There is a ton of job and wage related data this week, culminating in Big (made-up) Jobs Friday. There will be Employment Cost Index, ADP Payrolls, ISM Manufacturing Employment, JOLTS, Challenger Job Cuts, Initial Weekly Jobless Claims, Unit Labor Costs, ISM Non Manufacturing Employment, Non Farm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rate, U6 Underemployment Rate, Labor force Participation Rate and Average Weekly Hours.
(3) Central Bank Palooza: Key interest rate and policy statements will be issued out of the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan this week.
Market Wrap-Up
Overview
There were no economic events today.
On Deck for Tomorrow
Bank of Japan, Employment Cost Index, Case Shiller HPI, FHFA Home Price Index, Chicago PMI, Consumer Confidence.