What Happened Last Week?
Mortgage Rates Rose Gently, but Still Well Below the Week’s Highs
Wednesday’s mortgage rates were the highest in roughly a month and very close to the highest levels in 2 months. This followed stronger economic data on that same morning. Rates moved back down Thursday after separate econ data told a different story. Friday, was a mixed bag.
The underlying bond market was slightly weaker to start the day, and that meant rates started out modestly higher. But the last economic data of the week showed lower-than-expected consumer sentiment. Bonds improved as a result, but not enough for the average lender to go to the trouble of adjusting their mortgage rate offerings. The implication is that today’s rates would be back in line with Thursday’s if the bond market were to hold steady over the weekend. Keep in mind, that’s never a guarantee. The point of sharing the info is simply to relay the fact that rates could endure a bit of bond market weakness over the weekend without being any higher.
Source: Matthew Graham, Mortgage News Daily 11/7/2025)
What’s on the Agenda for This Week?
Overview
This is a holiday- shortened week with no major economic data to absorb.
Three Things
The three areas that have the ability to impact MBS backend pricing this week are: (1) Geopolitical, (2) The Talking Fed and (3) Treasury Dump.
(1) Geopolitical: The government shutdown continues to be front and center and it appears that enough Dems in the Senate are willing to move forward which could potentially lead to a reopening of the government by Friday. The G7 meeting is this week and will get a lot of attention. We may hear something from the Supreme Court on tariffs.
(2) The Talking Fed: This is a busy week for Fed speak with Barr, Williams, Paulson, Waller, Bostic, Miran Collins, Schmid and Logan.
(3) Treasury Dump: Thursday’s 30-year bond auction will get the most attention.
- 11/10: 3-year note
- 11/12: 10-year note
- 11/13: 30-year bond
Market Wrap-up
The Talking Fed: S.F. Fed President Daly summed up everything pretty well by commenting that tariffs aren’t broad-inflationary, growth is cooling because demand for labor is fading, not supply, policy stays restrictive, inflation is lower but sticky, negative demand shock emerging yet “keeping an open mind” on policy.
Treasury Dump: Three days of dumping debt into the marketplace kicked off with today’s shorter term 3-year note. $25B went off at a high yield of 3.579% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.85.
Geopolitical: The Senate has actually passed a vote to end the government shutdown; however, the House will have to vote on it.
On Deck for Tomorrow: The bond market is closed for Veteran’s Day.