What Happened Last Week?
Solid Conclusion to a Solid Week. Has the Tide Turned?
After Thanksgiving week introduced a potential breakout from the recent uptrend in yields, last week kept hope alive. It also kept experts in suspense until today due to the jobs report. Despite a decent facade (227k vs 200k forecast), the closer one examined Friday’s jobs data, the weaker it began to look. Markets agreed without much hesitation. It wasn’t as if the data was downbeat enough for a massive rally, but one could argue that Friday’s modest rally was still a great victory on a week where yields were already pushing the lowest levels since October 21st. This week will be important in determining the endurance of this rally with Treasury auctions and inflation data. Next week will set the tone for the end of the year with the Fed’s dot plot and rate announcement.
Source: Matthew Graham, Mortgage News Daily 12/6/2024)
What’s on the Agenda for Week?
Three Things
The three areas that have the greatest ability to impact MBS backend pricing this week are: (1) Inflation Nation, (2) Central Bank Palooza and (3) Geopolitical.
(1) Inflation Nation: There will be several inflation related data sets this week with CPI, PPI, Import Prices and Unit Labor Costs. The bond market will give the most weight to CPI with YOY Core CPI expected to rise versus its previous reading.
(2) Central Bank Palooza: This week, the Bank of Canada is expected to cut 50 BPS on Wednesday, and the European Central Bank is also expected to cut although there is much debate on 25 BPS versus 50 BPS at this meeting.
(3) Geopolitical: Two governments were lost last week with France and Syria with Syria still very much in the headlines. Geopolitical winds swirling around Russia, Ukraine and the Middle East will be very key. So are the domestic winds with the bond market shifting to be more pro the new administration’s path.
Treasury Dump
Here is this week’s Treasury auction schedule.
Market Wrap-up
Domestic Flavor
There were no domestic events today.
Across the Pond
China: CPI YOY 0.2% versus estimates of 0.5%, PPI YOY -2.5% versus estimates of -2.8%.
Japan: GDP 3rd quarter 0.3% versus estimates of 0.2%.
On Deck for Tomorrow
Australian Interest Rate Decision, USA: Non-Farm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, 3-year Treasury note auction.