The bond and mortgage markets continue to trade in a tight range, mostly the 10 yr note that can’t move away and out of the range that has kept the note in a narrow trading range for the last eight sessions. The rate markets continue to be influenced by how the stock market acts each day, recent activity in that market has added support on any attempts to push yields higher. Last week the key stock indexes declined however the 10 yr note and mortgage markets on the week were relatively unchanged.
This week has a lot of key economic data to work through; Monday starts with Sept retail sales that are expected to be strong, Each day this week has data that could easily move the US financial markets if the releases are off the mark. The EU has a key summit meeting later this week, every time it meets the markets look for something of substance but for three years not much comes from the get-together. Spain continues to resist asking for help from the ECB because the requirements attached to any aid are too severe according to Spain’s prime minister.
QE 3, the Fed buying MBSs at the rate of $40B a month, has kept longer dated treasuries and mortgages from declining; however since the announcement on Sept 13th neither market has been able to decline much in rates. On the announcement interest rates declined in big moves then edged bock up a little and since then not a lot of change.